A month ago, I wrote an article about the second half of 2023, which would be an artificially created bull market.
The so-called artificial bull market refers to a bull market that is created by strong policy stimulation, like giving a stimulant, even though the economic fundamentals have not truly recovered.
But a bull market is always a bull market, and the trading ideas of a bull market and a bear market are completely different.
The tone of a bull market must be thoroughly studied in order to grasp the big trend of a bull market.
The main tones of this bull market are as follows.
1. Stimulate domestic demand and consumption.
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2. Relax real estate, and adapt to local conditions.
3. Protect the capital market and increase its activity.
4. Comprehensively boost the confidence of consumers, investors, small and medium-sized business owners, and the public.
Today, I will talk about the bull market thinking under the main tone of the bull market.Stimulate domestic demand and promote consumption.
The core of this round of policies is to stimulate the economic recovery, because the current economic development speed is far from expected.
The most important means to stimulate the economy, or the underlying issue, is to stimulate domestic demand.
Three years of the epidemic has made the public develop the good habit of saving money, and the consumption ability has been greatly reduced.
In addition to the high debt itself, loans have completely squeezed the consumption ability of this group of people.
Therefore, an important core of this round of the market is to promote consumption, which is definitely a good news for consumer enterprises.
And to promote consumption itself, the public needs to have money in their pockets, and the rise of the capital market is also a matter of course.
Regarding consumption, don't always think about eating, wearing, living and traveling, these necessary consumptions, think about where the additional consumption is.
The major consumption that can be thought of is mainly cars, and then it is houses.Subsidies for the whole car are likely to continue, and the policy of bringing cars to rural areas will also be sustained.
Although houses will not have subsidies, it is very likely that loan interest rates will be reduced, achieving a disguised subsidy, and even relaxing the down payment ratio to stimulate the demand for housing replacement.
Finally, a large number of consumption vouchers will be issued to stimulate retail, new retail, and the department store industry to drive consumer demand.
In short, big consumption will definitely be driven by various policies, and whether consumers will buy it can only be answered by the market.
In addition, the opportunity of new retail will burst out with the rise of big consumption, which can be paid attention to appropriately.
Relax the real estate market according to local conditions.
Real estate is an absolute benefit, especially after removing those four key words, the policy has completely changed the direction.
This is the important reason for real estate to become the absolute main line.
For five years, the real estate market has been suppressed, and house prices have not risen, but there has been no acceleration in overall economic development.
Instead, there are more unfinished buildings and more real estate companies that have gone bankrupt.This time, the deregulation of the real estate industry is a move of desperation and also a key trump card being played.
Many investors link housing prices with real estate companies, which is a big mistake.
The reason why real estate companies make money is not because of rising housing prices, but because of high leverage.
Under the premise of deleveraging, what can ensure the profits of real estate companies is actually the sales volume of real estate, not the price.
The relaxation of the real estate market itself is not a strong stimulant for price increases, but a way out for real estate companies.
From this perspective, those junk real estate companies can be rescued from the brink of death, which is also an important factor in promoting the main trend of the real estate market.
Solving the problems of real estate companies, reducing unfinished buildings, increasing the sales volume of real estate, paying more taxes, is the top priority.
The reaction of the capital market is also very obvious, the valuation of real estate companies can be restored to health, and the biggest hidden danger is slowly being eliminated.
Caring for the capital market and increasing its activity.
There is also a slogan that I don't know if everyone has noticed, called "increasing market activity."What drives the increase in market activity? It stems from the widespread underperformance of high-priced IPOs.
The Science and Technology Innovation Board and the registration system are designed to support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and address their financing issues.
High-priced issuances are actually meant to provide more financial support to SMEs, but the market's "bloodletting" has directly led to insufficient liquidity for these companies. After going public, their stock prices have been falling all the way, and IPOs are not trusted by the market, resulting in a large number of abandoned purchases.
The vitality of the capital market lies in the fact that when the market rises, the issuance of IPOs will be more smooth, which is the ultimate goal.
Especially in the second half of the year, there is a need for the listing of giant IPOs, which is very important.
What the capital cares for is not retail investors, but the financing system of the market, the financing function of the market.
The so-called vitality is just a concept. What is feared is not that retail investors lose money, but that no one believes in the registration system.
Everyone votes with their feet, leading to an awkward situation in the market. This time, it will definitely give new stocks a different "experience."
Therefore, it is recommended that everyone can pay attention to the newly listed new shares and secondary shares, and there will definitely be obvious changes and investment opportunities.
Of course, the vitality of the market is not only about new shares, so the whole bull market will be shared by all, and each industry sector will have opportunities and will move forward in rotation.Boost consumer confidence comprehensively, investor confidence, confidence of small and medium-sized business owners, and public confidence.
Various official media have been publishing articles continuously on the market, demanding to boost confidence, and some even directly require the market to rise to boost consumption.
This kind of policy stimulus can be said to be unprecedented.
The word "confidence" is the focus of the moment and the absolute core.
Confidence is bound to give birth to a bull market, because when everyone is confident, the stock market will naturally rise.
If everyone's expectation is that the stock market will rise, then the willingness to sell will be weak, and the probability of rising will be greater.
The rise of the stock market is only a part of boosting confidence, which can stimulate a certain recovery of consumption.
What really needs to be stimulated is the confidence of entrepreneurs. Only when entrepreneurs are confident and willing to invest in production and manufacturing can the entire chain be unblocked.
The confidence of entrepreneurs can solve employment problems and promote consumption.
High-quality enterprises can go public on the capital market to raise funds, solving this problem, and the capital market is also revitalized.Confidence is the thread that runs through the entire economy. The key to restoring confidence is to show from a policy perspective that there is a possibility of making money.
Of course, I must add a special sentence.
The timing of policy stimulation is very important. Never always think that the market will "give out money" to boost confidence.
When market confidence is restored, those who should be "harvesting leeks" will still do so, which is the essence of capital.
Capital, never does charity work, boosting confidence is also for the next round of "harvesting leeks."
Let's talk about the trading strategy in a bull market, which is also very important.
Many investors do not make much money in a bull market because they have stepped on the wrong rhythm.
Whether it is a man-made bull market, a capital bull market, or a market bull market, it is important to focus on a few points.
1. The main line in a bull market generally does not provide opportunities to get on the bus.In a bull market, the main trend, especially the major one, rarely reverses to pick up people, and the opportunity to get on the train is almost always to chase the rise.
The start of a bull market will definitely be accompanied by the start of a major sector, and it is policy and capital that start synchronously.
The start of this round of the bull market is the real estate.
Therefore, the entire real estate sector, in the early stage of the rise, will not give the opportunity to get on the train at a low price, but will rise straight up.
Occasionally, a few small bearish lines that appear halfway are actually the best opportunities to get on the train.
Because when the market just rises, the public is very hesitant, even if they understand it, they also hope to have the opportunity to enter at a low price.
Funds will often go against the trend, not giving the opportunity to get on the train, and directly let people watch the rise, until they can't help but follow the trend to buy.
This is the law of the bull market, any round of the bull market starts with the main line of the sector, and when the market reacts, it is at least halfway up the mountain.
2. The rotation in the bull market often starts when the main line rests.
What is a bull market, it is called a bull market when all sectors rise.All sectors rise, and all sectors rise together, which is not the same thing.
In a bull market, the auxiliary lines often charge forward when the main line is resting.
The reason for this situation is actually due to the actions of capital.
Capital continuously raises the main line sectors, not allowing retail investors to get on board, until the retail investors can't help it and follow the trend at high positions.
Where does the capital for retail investors to take over come from? It is from holding the auxiliary line sectors that have not risen, feeling like a chicken's ribs, and finally unable to bear it and leave the market.
After each rise, the main force uses the profits to quietly absorb the auxiliary line sectors and take the chips of retail investors.
So when the main line can't rise anymore, it is because the main force's capital has already been transferred to the auxiliary line, so the rotation of these sectors begins.
3. The rhythm of a bull market, main line - rotation - main line, ends.
The rhythm of a bull market is basically a total-part-total, that is, the main line, rotation, main line.
This is caused by the operation law of capital.The corresponding behavior is that of retail investors, who cannot keep up with the main trend, get on the main trend, and then go back to speculate on the rotation.
If you miss the rhythm, you will not make money throughout the bull market, and may even lose money in the process of chasing rises and selling falls.
In the early stage of the bull market, it should last at least 2-3 weeks, and a 20-30% increase in the main line sector is a starting point. Before achieving this small goal, there will be no major changes in the market, and the index will be launched first.
The real bull market is a comprehensive bloom that appears in the rotation, and the increase in the index at this stage is not large.
In the last stage, funds begin to take profits at high positions, and in order to cover the delivery, they will pull the main line again, or even pull the weight sector to cover the capital retreat.
4. The early stage of the bull market is doubt, and the late stage is blindness.
In the early stage of the bull market, there must be doubt, and investors do not recognize the arrival of the bull market.
Many investors in the early stage of the bull market, after a 100-point increase, are eager to reduce positions, or even leave the market.
Because they have been trapped for a long time, the thinking inertia is that there should be a little bit of selling in the bear market when there is an increase.
After selling the stock, I found that the stock market is still rising, and at this time, the thinking will have a new change.Only at this moment did I realize that a bull market might have arrived, but I was still considering whether to chase the high prices.
During the period of hesitation and wandering, the bull market had actually entered the second half.
Buying in the second half can indeed make some money, but the feeling of making money can make people float and gradually become blind.
In the end, in the burst of the bubble, it may take only a few days to wipe out the profits, and then it will start to continuously lose money, completely caught off guard.
Seizing 2023 is to better cope with the after-effects of strong policy stimulation in 2024, which will gradually emerge.
But no matter what, investment should conform to the situation and first grasp the market that can be grasped at present.
If winter is destined to come, then the first task is to stock up on food.
Recognize the changes in the current market, change the inherent thinking, and use new thinking to view the opportunities in the current market in order to make money.
Some investors have not experienced the "bull market".So, they do not understand why real estate prices rise, why brokerage firms become strong.
It's okay, there is always a first time, there is always something you need to understand. Only in this way can you continue to accumulate experience and seize opportunities.
The investment market, in essence, is an experience market. When your experience goes to a higher level, the probability of making money is higher.